So here is my walk through of my first trade of the week, which is still ongoing. I pulled the trigger 13 hours ago.
First we got the AUD/USD 4 Hour chart. As you can see its recently in a downward trend, somewhere near the top of the bar. The horizontal is a key support zone I’m eyeing.
GPB/USD 1 Hour shows that its at the top of its channel again. The area I circled is key here, as price is stalling in that region, which you can see following the hammer candle. This channel is bullish, however there is a stall, and news that does not support a catalyst for a break (see below). On top of that, price is overbought in this region.
Not much to look at for the euro, which is why I’m not trading it. You have two intermediate so-so highs, and overbought territory.
And here is the bread and butter for me pulling the trigger. This block of news prints rarely cause a big move, and from historical data you only get small spikes (which did not even exist on this night). On top of that, the USD prints typically are not a catalyst for risk on/off moves, so seeing the lack of catalyst I went with my short bias and entered the market.
SELL AUD/USD@ 1.05259 (sl 1.0550), risk 0.964% target 1.0480
UPDATE: Moved sl to 1.05097, and moved target to 1.0452, because my target did not trigger during NY crossover, I’m switching to a more long-term target. This trades a guaranteed win now.
EDIT: I forgot to mention that I picked AUD/USD to trade because I was expecting it to be the biggest mover of the night, and I missed the initial entry in the circled region for GPB/USD
FINAL UPDATE: I added a position at the wrong time, got stopped out at BE. The problem was.. somehow my stoploss also got triggered into a order going the OPPOSITE direction, which I saw when I woke up. Thanks to this technical glitch, I exited at loss immediately, and took a 0.5% loss. Not very happy. How the hell does this glitch even happen?